Paycor Stadium. 1:15 AM – Friday 30th September
The Cincinnati Bengals will be hoping to dispel any of the ‘Super Bowl hangover’ talk that followed them after starting 0-2 this week when they face the in-form Miami Dolphins at home for Thursday Night Football this week. The Bengals looked like they turned a corner last week when they swatted aside the Jets 27-10 with Joe Burrow throwing three touchdowns and 275 yards. The defence was impressive too, racking up four sacks and two interceptions on Joe Flacco. The Dolphins pose a very different threat to the Jets however, and have arguably been the best team in the NFL through three games, with their victory over Buffalo in week three being the highlight. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are causing NFL defences all sorts of trouble this season, and we could be set for a fascinating matchup between two of the best receiving groups in the league.
Dolphins @ Bengals Picks
Moneyline: Bengals – 13/25 with Unibet
Spread: Bengals -3.5 – 10/11 with BetUK
Over/Under: Under 47.5 Points – 20/21 with Parimatch
(Odds correct as of 11am 29/09)
Given the array of offensive talent for both franchises, it seems maybe Vegas knows something we don’t with the low points line. The Dolphins are 3-0 under new Head Coach Mike McDaniel after pipping the Superbowl favourite Buffalo Bills in a scorching hot Miami on Sunday. The offensive firepower of the Bills and Dolphins was all the talk pre-game, but it was actually the defences who stepped up in a tight 21-19 finish. We also saw the birth of another beautiful moment that will live on through the annals of NFL history, the Butt Punt.
is this the greatest photo of all time pic.twitter.com/QhSZ2BiA2o
— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022
Joe Burrow and the Bengals finally clicked offensively last week in their 27-12 win at the Jets (yes, I know it’s the Jets but it still counts). Despite the 1-2 record, the Bengals defence ranks 9th in the NFL for points allowed, and indications from Dolphins practice are they may not be against a full-strength offence. QB Tua Tagovailoa is struggling with back and ankle injuries, and comments from Tua and McDaniel on his availability for Thursday do not sound convincing. This would leave Teddy Bridgewater to take the offensive reins, who whilst capable, does not bring the same dynamism to this offence as Tua. And it seems Vegas agrees – based on the assumption that Tua does not suit up, or plays but is limited due to injury, I’m backing the Bengals to cover at home.
Dolphins @ Bengals Player Props
Joe Burrow Over 266.5 Passing Yards – 5/6 with Betfair
The Dolphins’ defence has conceded 715 passing yards in the past two weeks against Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. It looked as if Cincinnati altered their gameplan somewhat last week and it meant that Burrow was kept clean, which led to him having by far his best performance this season. With the Bengals coming up against a Dolphins secondary that has struggled to keep up, with the offensive weapons they possess, I can see Burrow hitting the over in this one.
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown – 6/4 with Bet365
After Miami’s win over Buffalo last week, Tyreek Hill was interviewed in the locker room and was asked about the prospect of coming up against the Bengals. He said: “I can’t wait to go against Eli Apple. I owe you boy. I owe you.” A pissed-off Cheetah is a scary prospect and I expect him to back up his smack talk.
“I can’t wait to go against Eli Apple. … I owe you boy” 👀 @brgridiron
Cheetah looking for revenge after last year’s AFC Championship
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 26, 2022
Joe Mixon Over 65.5 Rushing Yards – 5/6 with Betfair
Joe Mixon has struggled to get going a bit this season, typified by his performance against the Jets last week where he only managed 24 yards on 12 carries. However, he comes up against a Dolphins rush defence that has allowed 116 rushing yards a game so far this season this week and I expect a bounceback performance from the Bengals back.
Ja’marr Chase 2+ Receiving Touchdowns – 9/2 with Bet365
Consider this our outside bet of the week, but Ja’Marr Chase is due a big game after two relatively quiet weeks. Chase is a guy that is best when the lights shine brightest, and he faces the NFL’s 31st-ranked pass defence this week. We’ve got him having Xavien Howard on toast and going off this week.