NFL Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Betting Preview

​​Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA – 1:15 AM – Friday 2nd December

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Betting Odds

Patriots to win outright: 6/4 with BetVictor
Bills to win outright: 13/25 BetUK
Spread: Bills -3.5 / Patriots +3.5 – 10/11 Unibet
Points Total: 43.5 (Over: 10/11 | Under – 10/11) – 9/10 with 10Bet

A banged-up Buffalo Bills roster travel to their divisional nemesis the New England Patriots in what will be a windy Thursday evening in Foxborough. The Bills are currently second in the AFC East at 8-3, whilst despite being above .500 at 6-5, the Patriots are bottom of the division. The Pats are still firmly in the playoff hunt but will face an uphill battle with defeat tonight.

The Bills have a whopping sixteen players on the injury report this week and Josh Allen has been dealing with an elbow injury for the past couple of weeks. Despite being a full participant in practice all week, it does seem like the elbow is bothering Allen, who’s thrown seven interceptions in his previous five games. Star pass rusher Von Miller is out with a knee injury, and it’s still possible he misses the rest of the season. One positive on the injury front was the return of Tre White on Sunday, who made his first appearance of the season after tearing his ACL last year.

The Patriots will be without Damien Harris and Isaiah Wynn, who have been ruled out after missing all of practice this week. Jabrill Peppers missed practice through injury, but the Pats are hopeful he plays tonight. Jakobi Meyers and David Andrews are both expected to play too despite carrying knocks.

Bills at Patriots Picks

Moneyline – Patriots
Spread – Patriots +3.5
Points Total – Under 43.5

We saw the impact of the wind on the two quarterbacks in the Jets vs. Patriots game which ended with that last-second punt-return touchdown. It’s expected to be very windy again tonight, which will play into the Patriots’ hands who will want this to become a battle on the ground. In the game against the Jets, the Pats moved the ball well between the 20s but had too many mistimed sacks when they got near the redzone. The Bills’ defensive line is carrying injuries and Von Miller will be a big miss. Rhamondre Stevenson will be seeing plenty of touches and it’s crucial the Bills wrap up properly when tackling tonight. Matthew Judon and co will be harassing Josh Allen throughout the night, and I’m anticipating a big evening for Belichick’s defence.

Despite the Thanksgiving win, we saw an animated Stefon Diggs at Ford Field in a heated discussion with Head Coach Sean McDermott. The Bills did start throwing his way as Diggs finished the game with 8 catches, 77 yards, and a touchdown. Belichick and his star cornerbacks will be looking to frustrate Diggs again, and with the predicted weather, Stefon may have to accept this is a game mainly played on the ground. The Bills’ offence has been living off hype rather than performance for a lot of this season, and whilst they’ve still racked up eight wins, there are flaws with Allen and the Bills’ game this season that coaches like Belichick have been exploiting. I’m not convinced by the Bills’ run-game, which is where this game will be won and lost tonight. For that reason, I’m backing the Patriots to grab the upset win at home in a lower-scoring affair.

Bills at Patriots Prop Bets

Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards – 10/11 with bet365

The Patriots’ pass rush has been causing teams all sorts of trouble and I can see Josh Allen being flushed out and being made to make plays with his legs all night. Also, with the weather forecast as it is, it wouldn’t surprise me to see some designed run plays for Allen.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Receptions – 19/20 with 888Sport

Damien Harris’ injury makes this a very attractive play. He’s gone over 4.5 in four of his last five games and has been one of Mac Jones’ favourite targets in recent weeks even with Harris in the team. With Stevenson being the bell cow this week, he should be getting plenty of work in the passing game. 

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards – 17/20 with Unibet

For many of the same reasons as we mentioned above, Rhamondre should be having a big day for the Pats. This team is a run-first team and Bill Belichick has praised Stevenson a lot this year, and clearly trusts him. If the Pats are to win as we are predicting, it will be through the Patriots’ running back.

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions – 13/20 with 888Sport

QB1 in Buffalo has thrown seven picks in his last five games, and he’s playing a very good defence tonight. With the wind being an issue tonight it could be tough for Allen, and I think his interception streak continues here.

Matthew Judon Over 0.5 Sacks – 4/6 with BetUK

Judon is having an incredible year. 13 sacks in 11 games is an amazing return and with Dion Dawkins officially out for the Bills, he should be able to add to that tally tonight. Bill Belichick is a genius when it comes to engineering pass rush.